David Pogue and Walt Mossberg have posted their iPad reviews and I think it’s safe to say that we are at the dawn of a new computing era.  I don’t believe it will kill the current paradigm, but it will create a new one.  Will it appeal to tech geeks?  Probably not but that doesn’t matter because it appeals to normal people who vastly outnumber geeks and even people who don’t or won’t use computers.  [UPDATE - iSuppli predicts 20 million iPad sales per year by 2012]

Pogue said that he tested over 12 hours of run time while playing back video which is more than the 10-hour rating and Mossberg also found run time longer than 10 hours.  Once all the major sites support HTML5 video, the lack of flash will mostly be a non-issue and the mere existence of millions of iPads will force any serious websites to have a flash alternative.

While the iPad is the butt of jokes for geeks, Ethan Nickolas explained why the iPad is going to be his mom’s next computer.  I think Nickolas’ explanation shows us why this type of computing platform will reach the next billion computer users.  They don’t want the complexity of a computer and they want the instantaneous boot/wake times.

Apple had the right idea with the original Macintosh in 1984 to dominate the first computing era but its cost of $2495 ($5085 adjusted to 2009 inflation) simply put it out of reach for all but the wealthy.  At over $1000, Macs are still out of reach for the majority of people but the iPod showed that people are willing to pay a 100% premium in the sub $300 market.  The iPad plays in the $500 to $730 market so it could have a significant if not dominant market share even if it has to compete against $250 to $400 ARM-based devices.

So is it too late for the competition?  Maybe not game over but they better get their act together soon if they want to be relevant in the value segment.  Google is a serious player with the Android operating system and Microsoft might be a player with Windows Mobile 7.  Technically superior devices like the ARM 9 dual-core based Notion Ink Adam tablet with a transflexive ePaper/LCD display might have a chance competing if the price is right and if it gets the right software and operating system.  The Apple iPad by comparison only has an ARM 8 single-core processor with no ePaper mode, but this market will largely care more about finish and trim than what’s under the hood and Apple is clearly in the lead for now.