Evaluating Broadband Stimulus And The National Broadband Plan: Establishing Expectation For Broadband Rankings
Phoenix Center Policy Bulletin No. 24
Dr. George S. Ford
Lawrence J. Spiwak, Esq.

Ford and Spiwak examine the FCC’s national broadband plan and propose the question, “How do we know whether the [programs within the plan] are successful?” Based on certain trends in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development rankings and data, they suggest that the plan’s goals for 2012 likely will push the United States to a ranking of 13th, with potential for 9th but no likelihood of downward movement in the rankings.

The authors feel that for the policies inherent in the plan to be considered successful, a top 10 position would need to be met. But they note that measurements for success often are criticized and suggest that because determination for success will come at some future time by way of an improvement in OECD rankings, there is a possibility of confusion in associating correlation with causation. In other words, any change to rank may be correlated with policy changes due to the plan, but rank may change due to factors outside broadband policy.

Ford and Spiwak present statistical models for prediction. They also conclude that due to the procedure of how OECD rankings are determined, it is likely that the United States could stay stagnant in its position or potentially improve its ranking without any policy changes. Therefore, it is not completely accurate to apply credit to any future policy changes for an improvement in ranking without considering other factors that may have increased it.

The full article is here.